Some seats that were once considered safe are now not very safe for suddenly vulnerable Democrats. This has panicked PACs who have moved campaign dollars to protect seats previously invulnerable.
Election 2022 is down to the wire, and things just got real.
Today’s news brings us to deep-blue Oregon where Kurt Schrader, once a shoo in, is being pushed aside by the Democrat Party. He will be fighting against Republican Amy Ryan Courser. AdImpact (as seen by Josh Kraushaar) shows that party advertising spending in Schrader’s 5th district was moved to the 6th district to help Andrea Salinas in her fight against Republican Mike Erickson.
You might think this is a common occurrence.
It doesn’t happen often that Democrats write off a district President-elect Joe Biden won in 2020, by nine points. This is to shore up a district Biden won by thirteen points.
If the Democrats are using 10-and-up as their new firewall, it’s a problem that I didn’t see coming. Oregon Democrats are further complicated by Tina Kotek, the gubernatorial candidate (looking to replace Kate Brown), who polls consistently behind Republican Christine Drazan.
Is Drazan able to pull off Courser and Erickson’s coattails?
We’ll find out in 19 days, although it is possible to miss coattails due to this being a three-way race.
Oregon could be a unique case, as Portland has been Ground Zero for some the most outrageous progressive ideas ever put into practice.
I reported Monday for you that various dark money groups were busy supporting incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet’s senate race in Colorado, even though he’s supposedly eight percentage points ahead of GOP challenger Joe O’Dea.
It’s not that voters will kick Bennet to his death (as he so richly deserved) or make Oregon red. It is important to remember that every dollar spent in Oregon and Colorado on “safe” races is not one spent on close races like Arizona or Georgia.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats will have to spend money in places that they thought were safe like houses.
The Los Angeles Times reported Monday that national Democrats had abandoned Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate race to defeat J.D. Vance.
Ryan complained last week that Ryan doesn’t have the support of the nation he needs.
Officials from the National Democratic claim that party funding decisions were a matter for hard-nosed calculation and not personal.
Protecting endangered incumbents such as Sens is the party’s first responsibility. They argue that Raphael Warnock is from Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto is from Nevada.
Republican Adam Laxalt leads Masto by one point in Nevada. Herschel Walker is now leading Warnock, despite his reassuring debate performance.
Monmouth’s generic vote is currently in the lead for Republicans by six points. This is incredible in itself, but it becomes even more remarkable when you consider that half of voters prefer the GOP to the traditional 42- or 43 point ceiling in a winning election year. The Monmouth poll isn’t an anomaly, Hart, Harris and Rasmussen reporting similar results.
It gets worse. These numbers are for parents:
Safe Seats My A**
R+35 is breaking down because parents, who are more involved in their communities than singles and are more likely vote, are breaking it.
This is a huge feat, perhaps even unheard of.
This is just a week after Slate stated that Democrats aren’t spending large, but are spending smarter. They have gotten rid of their obsession with lavishing money on unqualified candidates in ruby-red states.
Except for now, some of these “no-shot” candidates are located in sapphire Blue districts.
Let’s end today’s column by adding yet another non-sequitur from you know-who.
Everyone knows that Giselle is the de facto presidential candidate.
Nobody knows what Joe’s doing, especially Joe.
Happy warriors, keep your cool. Although I am not smug about November 8, the Democrats have me feeling positive.
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